During the week of February 11th, I worked with an active and prominent crypto angel and we surveyed 91 people in the crypto industry. The goal of the survey is to better understand the near-term market sentiment from people on the front lines. (Almost) everyone who participated in the survey is actively building, investing or studying in the crypto ecosystem. I conducted a similar survey with a similar group back in April 2018 (found here) and in July 2018 (found here). It is worth spending a few minutes looking at the sentiment surveys from last year — as of July 2018, industry leaders thought that the crypto markets would end 2018 with a total market cap of ~$400B, but the markets ended 2018 closer to $100B. For questions or feedback, my contact email is email@example.com
Here is the professional breakdown of the surveyed audience:
Here are the results:
Q1: The crypto market is valued at ~$110 bn today. What is your prediction for where it ends 2019?
Q2: If you could own just one crypto asset for the next year it would be…?
BTC = 46 votes (51%), ETH = 9 votes (10%), BNB 5 votes (6%), MKR = 4 votes (4%), Dfinity = 3 votes (3%); other receiving more than 2 votes are Grin, Zcash and Algorand
Q3: Over the next 3 months, I am going to be:
Q4: Over the last 6 months, I was a:
Q5: What is your personal allocation within crypto?
Note: Theoretically should add up to 100%, but not every respondent’s answers summed to 100%. Thus, these bars represent the average % self-reported for each asset
Q6: On Dec 31, 2022 the price of BTC will be:
Q7: BTC has or will bottom at this price:
Q8: [Optional] What will be a potential catalyst for the crypto market to rebound?
This was an open-ended question and some of the most frequent responses were:
- Bitcoin ETF approval
- Telegram & Facebook launching crypto protocols
- Growth of Lightning Network
- Regulatory clarity
- More infrastructure build out (scalability, security, privacy)
· Improved usability and consumer-facing products
Q9: [Optional] Are you more or less confident than you were in 2017 that crypto will “win”?
42 of 59 respondents (71%) reported that they are more confident than they were in 2017 that crypto will “win”. This was an open-ended question and many respondents included commentary that the reason why they are more confident is because more smart people are entering the space and building important infrastructure and tooling.
Please email me any questions, thoughts or suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or message me on Twitter @zacharydewitt. Wing is a $460M early stage venture fund founded by ex-Sequoia and Accel partners.